Current Status and Development of China's Solar Photovoltaic Industry
Although the cost of solar photovoltaic power generation is as high as 68 times the cost of ordinary coal power, it has been growing at an annual rate of 25% and 40% in the past 10 years. This is because the world is on the eve of the arrival of conventional fossil fuel energy mining and use peaks, and the human energy structure will undergo fundamental changes. Solar photovoltaic power generation, which is the most sustainable development feature, will enter the human energy structure and become an important part of the basic energy. As far as the world is concerned, there is no fundamental difference in the need to vigorously develop renewable energy industries such as solar energy, but the understanding of urgency is not very consistent. The conductor device factories, such as some device factories in Yunnan, Ningbo, Kaifeng and Beijing, began to use the semiconductor industry waste single crystal and semiconductor device process to produce monocrystalline silicon solar cells, which is the germination period of China's photovoltaic industry. In the mid-to-late 1980s, Ningbo Solar Battery Factory and Kaifeng Solar Battery Factory introduced key equipment from abroad, Yunnan Semiconductor Factory, Qinhuangdao Huamei Factory and Shenzhen Daming Factory to introduce complete sets of monocrystalline silicon battery and module production equipment, Harbin-Cola and Shenzhen Yukang Factory. The introduction of amorphous silicon battery production lines, the total production capacity of these plants reached 4.5MW, China's photovoltaic industry was initially formed.
In the mid-1990s, China's photovoltaic industry was in a period of stable development, and the production of solar cells and modules increased steadily year by year. At the end of the 1990s, China's photovoltaic industry developed rapidly. The old factories carried out equipment renewal and expansion. Some component packaging factories were established everywhere, and the production capacity and actual production volume increased rapidly. In particular, the No. Yinshang Factory built a 10MW polysilicon battery production line at the end of 2002, which has greatly increased the production capacity of solar cells in China. By the end of 2002, the total production capacity of China's photovoltaic industry reached 30MW, as shown in Table 1. In addition, Ningbo Zhongyi Company built a 2MW polysilicon ingot and wafer production line during the “Ninth Five-Year Plan” period to fill the gap in the large-scale production of polycrystalline silicon wafers in China. In 2002, the actual production capacity of solar cells and components in China reached 11MW, of which 6MW of battery/component production (including 2MW of amorphous silicon) and 5MW of component package. Table 1 Production capacity of China's photovoltaic industry by the end of 2002 / MW manufacturer's production capacity / MW Monocrystalline Silicon Polysilicon Module Package Amorphous Silicon Battery/Component Ningbo Solar Power Company Kunming Semiconductor Device Factory Qinlidao Huamei Wushang Shanghai Guofei Yudao Guofei Shenzhen Energy Union Shanghai 811 Wuhan Rixin Shenzhen First Other Harbin One Krolla Shenzhen Day The monthly ring Shenzhen Shentuo Shenzhen Chuangyi Subtotal has a total annual growth rate of 25% in solar cell and module production in the last 10 years (from 0.65MW in 1992 to 6MW in 2002), as shown. Battery and component performance continues to improve, commercial battery efficiency has increased from 10% to 12% in the 1980s to 12% 14%. Solar module costs have been decreasing over the past 20 years, and the price was 6570 yuan/Wp in the early 1980s. Down to 2002, 3031 yuan / Wp. By the end of 2002, the cumulative installed capacity of China's photovoltaic system reached 40MW. The changes in the installed capacity of photovoltaic systems over the years are as shown, the difference between the annual installed capacity and the annual output of photovoltaic modules is net. Import volume (with import and export cross) is added. In 2002, the State Planning Commission launched the “Power Transmission to the Countryside” project in seven western provinces, investing 2 billion yuan, totaling 20MW, which greatly increased the installed capacity. The project was completed in 2003.
China's photovoltaic cell/component production growth (excluding component packaging) 21 years of China's PV system cumulative installed capacity growth buildupcapacityofsolarcells Shenzhen, Shantou, Guangzhou and Zhejiang, a large number of solar garden lights, annual sales of 500 million many. The battery is usually imported and then encapsulated with glue, which is simple in process. The number of cells used is as high as 6 MW per year, which is a major application for solar cells (this part is not included in the statistical table).
At present, China's photovoltaic industry is developing very well. For example, Baoding Yingli is building a 23MW crystalline silicon battery/component production line, Sichuan Huaguan and Huangshan Chaoyang are building 2MW component packaging lines respectively. Shandong Linuo and Shenzhen Clean Energy are preparing 12MW and 10MW polysilicon respectively. Battery/component production line, etc.
In short, China's photovoltaic industry has grown from scratch in the past 20 years, and has continued to develop steadily and steadily. It has played an important role in meeting the needs of the domestic market and in improving the living standards and special industrial applications of people in remote and remote areas.
On the other hand, there is still a considerable gap between China's PV industry and developed countries. These gaps are reflected in the small scale of production and low level of automation. At present, the production scale of solar cells in China is small. The actual output of a plant is between 12MW, which is 1/10 of the annual output of Sharp in Japan. In 2002, the total output of photovoltaic cells/components in China is 6MW (excluding small photovoltaic devices such as lawn lamps). It is about 1.2% of the world's total output. The level of automation is low and labor intensive.
The level of technology is low. China's solar cells and components are less efficient than the world; the average package level of components is also different from that of foreign countries.
The degree of localization of special raw materials is not bad. The localization of special materials is incomplete, and the materials and components that have been made in China have been realized, and the performance needs to be further improved. Special materials and components for export products are still imported, such as glass, silver paste, EVA, TPT, etc.
These gaps make China's PV module cost about US$1/Wp higher than the international market, so it is at a disadvantage in international competition. Especially in the case of zero tariff after WTO accession, China's PV industry faces domestic and foreign markets. Very severe test.
2.2 Development Trends In order to promote the development of China's photovoltaic technology and industry, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the State Planning Commission and the Economic and Trade Commission have formulated plans for the development of science and technology and industry in the next 10 years. Take the “Guangming Project” plan of the State Planning Commission as an example. It plans to raise 100 million yuan to make the total installed capacity of photovoltaic system reach 1MW in 2005, 300MW in 2010, and 25 million US dollars in the world. It is planned to install 10MW rural PV household system within 5 years. . These plans show that China's photovoltaic technology and industry will have a big development in the next 10 years.
It is hoped that the advanced nature of this plan will be reflected in not only ensuring the benefit of end users and system operators, but also benefiting the practitioners of China's photovoltaic industry. In order to achieve this goal, in addition to subsidies, it is more important to formulate strong regulations and policies to promote the development of the photovoltaic industry, such as the renewable energy quota law, on-grid tariffs and electricity price acquisition policies, and to supplement the cost difference in the power sector. Green energy trade policy, etc. Only in this way can the photovoltaic industry develop in a healthy and vigorous manner.
To deeply understand the development trend of China's photovoltaic industry, we must also examine the world's environment.
3 Global photovoltaic power generation and trend Photovoltaic industry is one of the fastest growing high-tech industries in the world after the 1980s. The average annual growth rate in the last 10 years is 22% (from 55 MW in 1" year to 400 MW in 201). The average annual growth rate in the last 5 years is the statistical result of the 35 plan and the learningcurve method. Forecasting the development of China's photovoltaic industry, compared with the “Guangming Project” plan of the State Planning Commission, it is found that the two are quite close. If the “Bright Project” of the Planning Commission is not only a market indicator characterized by “installed capacity”, It is a photovoltaic industry development plan that matches the development of the industry. That is, the installed capacity is basically completed with China's photovoltaic industry products. According to this plan, the average annual growth rate of China's photovoltaic industry should be greater than 35% during the period of 20002010 (the world during this period) The average annual growth rate of photovoltaic industry is 28.6%.) By 2010, the development level of China's photovoltaic industry will be the same as that of the world. At that time, the cost of photovoltaic power generation will drop to about ~.V (kWh). As shown, this is an advanced plan. .
In 2002, it reached 540MW, taking the momentum of rapid growth and growth, as shown. The level of technology and automation are constantly improving, with an amount of 85%. It fully reflects the development characteristics of the modern technology industry.
In the past two years, the cost of photovoltaic modules has dropped by two children.
In 2002, the cost of PV modules of some of the world's major manufacturers has dropped to 2.4/Wp, as shown. It is expected that the cost of PV modules in 2010 and 2015 can be reduced as the cost of PV modules continues to decline, and the PV market is developing rapidly. In 2002, the total installed capacity of the world's photovoltaic system reached 2GW. It is particularly worth mentioning that grid-connected power generation and photovoltaic building integration have developed rapidly. In 2002, grid-connected power generation accounted for 51% of total PV applications, and has become the largest PV market. Show. This fact has an epoch-making significance. It marks the transition of photovoltaic power generation from remote areas and special applications to cities, from supplementary energy to alternative energy, from large centralized power plants to distributed power supply modes, and human society to sustainable energy. System transition.
The cost of solar cells can be reduced with the increase of production. 4 Future development trend 4.1 Global energy situation and the future status of solar energy 4.1.1 The necessity and urgency of the future change of energy and renewable energy in this century from the history of human energy evolution For the evolution of human energy. The whole process can be divided into three stages: the pre-industrial era. Social wealth and energy consumption are low, and biomass energy such as fuelwood is the main source of energy; the era of industrialization. The combination of fossil fuels and industrial revolution has created a glorious era of civilization in the history of mankind. The rapid development of science and technology, the unprecedented increase in material wealth, and the birth of the next more civilized era. At the same time, it caused great waste of resources, the deterioration of the ecological environment and the era of post-industrialization of the world's energy structure before and after the destruction. This is a higher era of human civilization. It is characterized by a tremendous increase in material wealth per unit of energy consumption, restoration and improvement of the ecological environment. Sustainable development is the norm for all social activities. People and nature are friendly, clean and tidy. Renewable and distributed energy are the main body of energy structure.
The middle dashed line, deep solid line and light solid line are total energy consumption, fossil fuel energy and renewable energy and new energy. It can be seen that fossil fuel energy will eventually be depleted due to limited resources and non-renewable resources, so there must be a mining peak and it will eventually be replaced by renewable energy and new energy. After the peak of fossil fuel energy mining, the energy structure will undergo fundamental changes, and at the same time, humanity will enter a new era of new civilization. This fundamental change in the energy structure will take place in this century.
A crucial question is: At what time is the peak, how far is it from now, is there enough time for the development of renewable energy and new energy technologies? In order to find the peak position, let us observe several predictions in the world. .
The following are fossil fuels, which can be seen to peak between 20202030; for renewable energy solutions (1980 2060), fossil fuel peaks are also between 20202030.
The impact of the exploitation of oil and gas resources in the world on the peak value of fossil fuel production is very sensitive, so we will observe several predictions on the peak of oil and gas resources exploitation.
In 2002, ASPOAssociationforStudyofPeakOi丨 predicted that the peak of oil and gas production was in 2012; BP gave a prediction at the Davos World Energy Forum in 2001. The peak oil and gas production is in 2010 and will be exhausted after 3040; ASPO The latest predictions of world oil and gas production strongly test that the peak value of fossil fuel production is between 20202030.
The above-mentioned predictions of energy synthesis are shown in Figure li. It can be seen from the figure that the human energy structure in this century will undergo fundamental changes. The peak of fossil fuel production is only a dozen to twenty years ago, which is too close for energy structure changes.
It can be seen that the development of renewable energy and new energy technologies is not only very necessary, but also very urgent.
4.1.2 Foreign research on the future strategic position of renewable energy and solar energy According to the information of 0, the proportion of renewable energy and solar energy in the future energy structure can be estimated, as shown in Table 2. By the middle of this century (2050), the proportion of renewable energy in the energy structure will be greater than 50%, and the proportion of solar energy in the energy structure will be between 13% and 15%. This fully demonstrates the important strategic position of renewable energy and solar energy in the future world energy.
Table 2 Proportion of renewable energy and solar energy in the future energy structure /% (according to the perimeter 8 and forecast > period Japan predicts renewable energy solar renewable energy solar energy average renewable energy solar energy 4.2 China's energy situation and development of solar energy utilization technology Urgency 4.2.1 China's energy situation China's various primary energy resources are lower than the world average.
2 is the comparison of the proved remaining reserves of various primary energy resources in China (in terms of storage/production ratio) with the world. It can be seen that in addition to solar energy, the total amount of primary energy resources in China is lower than the world average.
4.2.2 Structural Contradictions and Environmental Issues in China's Classes Table 3 is a comparison of China's commodity energy consumption structure with the world in 1998. The proportion of coal in China is as high as “3 or more. The ratio of oil and gas, nuclear energy and hydropower is very low, which is in sharp contrast with the world, reflecting the structural contradiction of China's energy. This unreasonable energy structure not only causes over-exploitation of coal and waste of resources. And the direct combustion of coal is the main cause of air pollution in China. China's energy consumption accounts for 8%9% of the world, but S02 emissions account for 15.1% of the world, ranking first in the world; C02 emissions account for 13.6% of the world, ranking second in the world. S02, CO2, Ni and soot emitted by coal combustion account for 87%, 71%, 67% and 60% of the corresponding national emissions respectively. Therefore, it can be said that the main cause of air pollution in China is due to irrational energy structure and energy. The use of low level of technology.
Table 3: China's primary energy consumption structure and the world's comparison in the energy structure in 1998 /% of the world's China's coal oil, natural gas nuclear energy and hydropower 4.2.3 urgency of solar energy utilization technology development and utilization of renewable energy and solar technology, change The energy structure is a very difficult and urgent task on China's energy front.
S China's photovoltaic industry facing the challenges s.i preparation of the country's ambitious development plans to promote the development of photovoltaic technology and industry. The second new energy sub-committee of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) announced plans for photovoltaic, wind and solar thermal utilization. In 2010, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation reached 5GW. The European Union's renewable energy white paper and accompanying photovoltaic power generation in 2010 The installed capacity reached 3GW; the US Department of Energy has developed a new five-year national PV plan from January 1, 2000 and a long-term plan for 20202030 to achieve US energy, environmental, social development and maintain the world leading position in the photovoltaic industry. Strategic target, according to the expected development speed, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in the United States reached 4. 7GW in 2010; Australia plans to achieve the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in 2CU0.
75GW; regions other than Europe, Japan, and the United States and developing countries have maintained the production of PV modules in the world for many years.